Well, hello all. Fun day today, hope you enjoyed that news bit from Freddie Mac---very entertaining. I wonder how they are going to explain the magnitude of these losses to their buddies in Washington. If for some crazy reason you own shares in either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, sell immediately---the government will backstop their obligations, but the shareholders (and the taxpayers) are going to take it in the rear whent he smoke clears. They are worth less than zero--so is Citigroup--but that is Act 2 in our little play called the "Credit Crisis".

On a lighter note, I just saw a funny video on CNBC where Paris Hilton details her own solution to solving the energy crisis----the scary thing is that her proposal sounds better than the one's proposed by Obama and McCain. Either way- while Washington finally creates proposals to solve decade old problems, ironically our dear friend Oil fell yet again extending a correction that is now more than 20% from all time highs. All commodities continued to fall in unison. Even the almighty fertilizer stocks--Agrium and Potash---have formed classic topping formations, and they are now rolling over. If you own them for some reason, you should definitely sell even thought the fundamentals are still fanatastic long term. Unfortunately as many value investors have learned the hard way this year, value and fundamentals alone do not neccessarily make good investments---the market and the industry momentum have to be going your way. Most of these legendary investors including Bill Miller, Warren Buffett, and hedge fund managers Mohnish Pabrai, Richard Pzena ,and Peter Goodwood,are down BIG this year--between -28 and -50%. I used to be a die hard value investor many years ago, and i learned the hard way how painful it can be to bicker about value and balance sheets while your shares get obliterated. Now i choose to fly with a parachute---if things don't work out i just take my losses early and move on. Im not going to pretend that I always know better than the market--because ultimately no one can. The market is never wrong---but people's opinons often are.

Anyway, to those of you who keep pestering me to talk about the indicators I use for making longer term shifts in and out of the S&P, I promise it will come soon. I plan to spill the beans from my 50+ year study on the S&P500 free of charge so stay tuned. My long term trading indicators produced a 15% rate of return trading in and out of the market vs 10% for the S&P500. The system was out of the market 40% of the time, so this does not include what you would have made shorting bear markets or investing in Treasury bills at 5%. Obviously if you just invest in mutual funds this will be a very valuable segment as you can rotate in and out and sit stress free on the sidelines while the market gets killed, and get back in when a new bull market starts.