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In contrast to Greece, a debt crisis in Japan might actually fuel a
new rally in risk assets. How? A steady weakening of the very strong yen could bring back the carry trade.
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George Washington runs down the
six theories in vogue for why stocks have rallied so, including: dumb money following CNBC advice, HFT robots/algos buying futures after hours, and (if you're with
Karl Denninger) systemic fraud in overvaluing assets.
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Even with Morningstar changing the managers in its Ultimate Stock Pickers, the group's major holdings remain
almost exactly the same; tops on the list: Wal-Mart (
WMT), Microsoft (
MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (
JNJ).
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CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler lays out a number of options for
reining in credit-default swaps, but stops short of saying they could be banned, as
EU regulators are discussing. (
speech text)
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Apple (
AAPL) is
not as invincible as everyone thinks: Its market share actually slipped last quarter, Google (
GOOG) and Motorola (
MOT) are beating Apple at its own phone game, and the iPad won't live up to the hype.
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Facet Biotech (
FACT) resumes trading and jumps 66.2% to $27 - the per-share price that Abbott Labs (
ABT) has agreed to pay for the company in a
deal for a net $450M.
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ABC Consumer Comfort Index: Frozen at
-49, same as last week and stuck in a three-point range since early January. Positive ratings of personal finances and the national economy held steady at 44% and 8% respectively, but positive thoughts about the buying climate inched up to 25% from 24%.
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InterMune (
ITMN) resumes trading after its
earlier halt on an FDA panel's recommended drug approval; shares up 62.7% AH. (
previously)
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On the hour: S&P 500 futures -0.04%. 10-yr +0.13%. Euro -0.19% vs. dollar. Crude -0.87% to $81.16. Gold -0.27% to $1,121.
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Abbott Labs (
ABT) shores up its early and midstage pipeline with an
agreement to acquire Facet Biotech (
FACT) for $27/share in cash, for a net value of about $450M.
FACT halted at $16.37 and will resume trading at 5:20 p.m EST.
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In the wake of the 13-minute ABC (
DIS)-Cablevision (
CVC)
Oscar blackout - and ahead of its own contract expiration with Disney coming in August - Time Warner Cable (
TWC) plans to ask the FCC to
block broadcasters from cutting the signal during fee disputes.
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Navistar International (NAV): FQ1 EPS of $0.23 may not be comparable to estimate of $0.85. Revenue of $2.8B (-5%) vs. $3.2B. Shares -3.4% AH. (
PR)
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Dexia SA is
unloading 16.4M shares of Assured Guaranty (
AGO) in a secondary offering, with UBS Securities acting as lead manager.
AGO -1.8% AH.
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Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP): Q4 EPS of -$0.13 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $70M (+15.8%) vs. $68M. Guides Q1 EPS, revenue below consensus. Shares -3.2% AH. (
PR)
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J. Crew (JCG): Q4 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $461M (+18.7%) vs. $443M. Guides Q1 EPS at upper end of consensus. Shares +1.0% AH. (
PR)
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The major stock indexes inched higher today as volume picked up. Advancers and decliners finished roughly even. Among individual stocks, the two top percentage gainers in the S&P 500 were AIG (
AIG +11.9%) and Sprint Nextel (
S +6.2%).
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At the close: Dow +0.11% to 10564. S&P +0.17% to 1140. Nasdaq +0.36% to 2340.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.05%. 10-yr +0.13%. 5-yr +0.09%.
Commodities: Crude -0.72% to $81.28. Gold -0.41% to $1119.40.
Currencies: Euro -0.24% vs. dollar. Yen flat. Pound -0.5%.
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In
discussions with Obama today, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou says he did not ask for U.S. financial help and discussed a European proposal to crack down on financial-market speculation. The White House says Greece's problems "can and should" be resolved by the EU.
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The technology bubble popped a decade ago, but the
venture-capital industry that helped finance the boom stayed largely intact. Now venture-capital firms are going through their own winnowing process. (Top-ranked U.S. venture-backed company with the most potential:
Pacific Biosciences.)
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An FDA advisory panel says the safety of InterMune's (
ITMN) new lung medication has been adequately assessed and
recommends approval. Trading halted today.
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JPMorgan Chase (
JPM) analysts say that bank-owned sales as a share of total
home sales will remain at current or even higher levels three years from now in more than half of the nation’s 10 largest housing markets.
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Airline stocks soar as United Airlines' (
C +6.8%) CFO and Continental (
CAL +5.2%) CEO say
corporate travelers were starting to return and unit revenue growth jumped in February. (ETF:
IYT)
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On the hour: Dow +0.21% to 10574. 10-yr +0.08%. Euro -0.24% vs. dollar. Crude -0.5% to $81.46. Gold -0.16% to $1122.20.
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There's "
chatter on more asset sales coming," sparking another surge in AIG (
AIG +12.4%) after deals to sell
Alico to MetLife (
MET) and
AIA Group to Prudential UK (
PUK) garnered $51B. AIG shares now trade above their 200-day moving average.
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Uncertainty about the
market's outlook fuels a debate between economists Robert Shiller, pessimist, and Jeremy Siegel, optimist. But on Main Street USA, the prevailing mood is mostly
doom and gloom. (
Best and worst stock performers from year-ago market low.)
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The U.S. government is discussing plans to
sell its massive stake in Citigroup (
C +6.7%), possibly as early as this spring, says Fox Business. Federal officials have said they plan to unload its 27% stake in Citi over the next year, but the report says the feds are telling Wall Street bankers that it could happen sometime during the next three months. WSJ cites strong demand for its
preferred shares.
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After today's
out-of-control-Prius incident in California (“I was on the brakes pretty healthy... It just kept speeding up”), Toyota (
TM -1.6%) says the cars will be the subject of a
future recall. The
total financial impact on Toyota from its various recalls could surpass $5B in the next year.
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On the hour: Dow +0.42%. 10-yr +0.03%. Euro -0.26% vs. dollar. Crude -0.44% to $81.51. Gold -0.27% to $1121.00.
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For Fedspeak, this suggestion of
higher rates by year's end from New York Fed Markets Group chief Brian Sack is more straightforward than usual: “The current configuration of yields and asset prices incorporates expectations that short-term interest rates will begin to rise around the end of this year... The markets seem prepared for the risks toward tighter policy."
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Stock prices have room to rise further, and the likelihood of a double-dip has diminished,
Abby Joseph Cohen tells CNBC. "The stock market is almost always a discounting mechanism that... moves in advance of the economy, but we don't think it has moved too far at this point," she says, expecting the S&P to hit 1250-1300 this year.
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